History: Long-Term Decline in Module Prices
Over the past decade, photovoltaic modules have been a symbol of technological progress and falling prices. Thanks to mass production, particularly in China, and technological innovations, prices have dropped significantly.
The main factors included:
- scaling of production
- optimisation of manufacturing processes
- falling silicon prices
- strong competition among manufacturers
As a result, photovoltaics became an economically accessible technology across all segments—from single-family homes to large industrial installations.
The Present: Volatility and Rising Panel Prices in 2026
At Greenbuddies, we do not typically keep photovoltaic modules in stock and always order them specifically for individual projects. The current price increases are therefore inevitably reflected in the final prices of our installations. The year 2026 brings a significant shift in the trend. Photovoltaic module prices have begun to rise, and the market has become less predictable than before.
Main reasons for the rise in solar panel prices
1. Rising prices of raw materials
The main driver of price increases is the rise in raw material prices. Prices for materials such as silver, copper, aluminium, and silicon have been rising significantly since the end of 2025. For example, silver, which is essential for the production of solar cells, has become one of the most significant cost items.
2. Changes in China’s Export Policy
Another key factor is the Chinese government’s termination of the VAT exemption at the end of March 2026. Effective April 1, 2026, the 9% VAT refund on solar panel exports will be eliminated. This move has a direct impact on global prices and is immediately reflected in manufacturers’ price lists.
3. Imbalance Between Supply and Demand
Manufacturers are reducing production capacity while global demand for photovoltaics is growing. This creates pressure for further price increases.
4. Technological Transition
The transition to modern N-type technology brings higher efficiency but also higher production costs.
How this plays out in practice
The market is currently very unstable, and the current situation can be described as turbulent. Price lists are updated several times a week, manufacturers’ quotes are valid for only 3–5 days, prices have risen by 12–17% since the end of 2025, and a further across-the-board price increase of approximately 9% can be expected starting in April 2026. Overall, the cumulative increase in photovoltaic panel prices in 2026 could exceed 20%.
Important clarification: panels are only part of the investment
Although the rise in panel prices is attracting a lot of attention, it is important to consider the broader context. Photovoltaic panels typically account for approximately 20% of the total project cost. The remainder of the costs is allocated to structures, inverters, electrical installation, design work, and project implementation.
It follows that even a significant increase in panel prices has a limited impact on the total investment. The rest of the scope of supply is not affected by this price increase.
The Future: Stabilisation, but not a return to low module prices
What developments can be expected in the coming months and years? In the short term, the market is likely to remain volatile. A combination of political decisions, commodity prices, and technological changes will create pressure for further fluctuations.
In the medium term, some stabilisation can be expected, but a return to the extremely low prices of 2022–2023 is unlikely. On the contrary, it appears that the market is entering a new phase where prices will better reflect the real costs of raw materials, the technological quality of panels, and geopolitical influences.
What the rising panel prices mean for investors and customers
For both investors and end customers, this leads to several practical conclusions:
- Panel prices can change very quickly.
- The timing of an order plays a greater role than before.
- It makes sense to plan projects in advance.
In some cases, ordering early may mean taking advantage of prices from the previous period or avoiding further price increases.
The photovoltaic market is undergoing a fundamental shift in 2026. After years of falling prices, a period of growth and higher volatility is emerging. Nevertheless, photovoltaics remain an economically viable solution. If you are considering investing in a solar project, we recommend monitoring market developments and timing your decision appropriately.
